Sports analysis and statistics
It’s been a long season, but we’re finally up to the end of the W-League season. We’re satisfied with how our predictions are going (especially our steadily rising Bits score); however, it would be great to make a last push and get to 50/50.
The finals are, for the most part, settled – barring a huge victory by Melbourne City tonight (and we don’t even tip them to win), the top four now will be the top four at season’s end. Only final positions are up for grabs.
We’re into a chaotic state now, where all of our weeks are either excellent or terrible – after bottoming out the last time, we got three out of four this week.
But we’re also into an organised state, as we’re completely past the summer schedule! Yep, now it’s back down to just a weekend of matches, making our job a lot easier.
For this week, it’s a bad one to be an away fan, as we tip every home side to win this week. The other tipsters agree on four of them, but the Wellington-City game is divisive.
All of the games that were played had clear winners, with thirteen goals across three games. We got two of them right, but the one that we’d tipped as most likely was the one we flubbed on.
The bookend games to the round are tipped for the away side, the two middle ones go for the home team.
We only got one game correct in the last week, but that’s due to the others all being draws. This did mean that our Bits tally plummeted, so the little resurgence was probably just a one off.
At this point in the season, all of the tipsters are now regularly in agreement as to who will win, and this week is no exception – on all the games, us three are unanimous.
Last week was awful for us, as we completely wiped out, getting 0/3. One of them was our fault, as we had no reason to tip Brisbane, but Central Coast finally getting back on the winners list also through us for a loop.
Most of our games for this round are quite even, except for our prediction of Melbourne Victory to easily beat Wellington. We agree with the other tipsters, except for tonight’s City-Perth game, and that’s only just.
We have to laugh a little bit at our luck – after failing to get posts out on time, both of the games we’d missed (in two sports and two cities) were abandoned. Unfortunate for the players and fans, but good for us.
We don’t have anything particular to say about this lot of games, although we’ll hopefully continue our constant streak of getting exactly two games right.
It was a pretty easy week – so easy, in fact, that we correctly got all four games during it! We’re now just short of 50%, a mark that our opponents have been above for the last month or so. Our Bits also made the biggest jump we’ve seen, leaping to 1.84.
Our system does tip Brisbane to beat Melbourne Victory this week, going against all logic. We’ve based this on the Victory’s away form – they’ve scored 51 goals in their 27 matches. Since 12 of those matches are away, they’re expected to score 12/27 = ~23 goals in those games. They’ve actually only scored 16, which pushes them down heavily.
We can get four games this week!
The last one was the best week we’ve had in a while, if only because our bizarre Adelaide tip paid off! We were the only tipster to get that right, but Perth’s win over Sydney prevented us from a perfect round. (Let’s be quiet about how we’re still four behind the other tipsters.)
This week’s tips are fairly pedestrian – we tip the home side comfortably for all games, and our fellow tipsters agree with us on that.
In the last weekend of games (which seems like ages ago, a sign of how busy we’ve been), every match was won by the home team. We’d correctly tipped the first two of them, but backed the wrong side in the Melbourne Derby – despite this, our Bits still jumped heavily to 0.72.
Except for tonight’s game, which is set to be an easy Sydney FC win, the round lightly skews towards the away teams.
Another ‘week’, another three games to tip. Tonight’s games go for Adelaide and Sydney, Friday’s goes for Melbourne City.
The Adelaide game is one where I buck the other two tipsters.
The Flag 