AFLM Predictions – Round 1, 2020

It’s that time of year again, with everyone gearing up to see the start of the new AFLM season. Nothing, not even global pandemics, is set to get in the AFL’s way, as we’re set for a season full of twists, turns, and tips. Richmond are gunning to defend their title and enter themselves into ‘dynasty’ discussions, Geelong are looking to fight back after their spectacular late fadeout, and any number of teams are looking to bust into the finals like Brisbane did last year. And we’ll be here to try and predict it all.

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AFLW Predictions – Round 1, 2020

As part of the AFL’s quest for cultural dominance, and a general belief that this is just a curtainraiser for the ‘real’ footy, the AFLW season is teeing off tonight, far too early in February. The fans are excited, the media has been giving it enough coverage to make sure people are aware it’s happening, and the finest female footballers in the country are strapping their boots on, ready to give it a shake. As are we with our predictions – and we had a lot to do over the off season.

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AFLM Ladder Dominance Streaks

What’s the most consecutive years where one team has finished above another on the AFLM ladder?

For most football fans, there’s a certain inevitability about getting drawn into arguments with your friends about which team is better. Often it’s based around intangible measurements, but sometimes you can try and bring statistics to the table to assert dominance. (In fact, that’s basically the entire reason why I started doing football stats.)

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AFLW Predictions – Round 6, 2020

Even with certain global pandemics that threaten to disrupt the balance of everyday life as we know it, the AFLW season is attempting to march on – despite Richmond being a player down, Lauren Tesoreiro self-isolating after a flatmate returned from Japan. There’s not too long left in the year, though, so we might get through it clearly (the men’s competition is another matter).

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We’ve joined Squiggle!

Hey everyone, big news here (that I mentioned earlier): The Flag has been initiated into the hallowed ranks of Squiggle! Founded by author, programmer, and all-round genius Max Barry, the site has been aggregating the best of the AFL prediction bunch since 2017. All the big names are here – Matter of Stats, GRAFT, Footy Maths, Ranking Software, PlusSixOne – and now little old us.

Take a look at the placeholder logo we’ve got there…

Just pushing this one out quietly because it’s not a proper, in-depth post – but it’s something that needs to be done. This here’s just a simple table of all the match predictions for the 2020 AFLM season, so that it can be analysed and exported in a simple machine-readable format. Full credit for formatting goes to GRAFT Ratings.

As for why we’re doing this? Something very cool coming soon…

A CSV table link is available here.

AFLW Predictions – Round 5, 2020

We’re into the second half of the season now (and some big news could be coming soon for the blog and our tips), which helps our predictions out: now that every team’s played more than three games, the form adjustments won’t be overreacting and flying all over the place. Only seven teams shifted their ranking after the last weekend, as opposed to almost everyone in the previous weeks – and even with that, the jumps were smaller. The average ratings change was just 2.34 points, as opposed to the 6.74 it had been between rounds 3 and 4.