A-League Predictions – Week 12, 2018-19

Last week we got two games correct, with the other two being draws. We were the only tipsters that improved our overall percentage last week, but that was because we were starting from a lower base than the other two.

Tonight we have two games, and then another on Tuesday which we can include as part of this week (there are probably more efficient sorting algorithms, but whatever). Both games are tipped with similar margins, just one for the home team and one for the away – then Tuesday’s game has a consensus tip.

And indeed, like last week, we’re all in uniform agreement on who’s going to win.

W-League Predictions – Week 10, 2018-19

A-League Predictions – Week 11, 2018-19

And now, for the first of our ‘weeks that aren’t actually weeks, and that don’t have every team playing’. As we mentioned earlier, we’re splitting the games up into lots, fitting as many as we can into one lot without having the same team play twice in one.

So, with that in mind, our ‘week’ ends after Saturday night’s Wanderers-Victory game, and the next one starts with the Melb City-Newcastle clash – the Jets kick off this one tonight, easily tipped to beat Brisbane.

All three of us tipsters (FiveThirtyEight’s now on top, BTW) agree on every game this week – the home teams for the first three matches, the away side for the finale.

A-League Predictions – Week 10, 2018-19

W-League Predictions – Week 9, 2018-19

In the last round pre-Christmas, we correctly tipped the first and last matches, continuing our usual 50/50 record after initial missteps. Our Bits made a resurgence too, climbing to -0.25 (their best of the season).

We don’t have much to say about the games this week; but we hope you had a merry Christmas!

A-League Predictions – Week 9, 2018-19

We’re now into, for a few months, the stage of the season that can’t really be called ‘weeks’. What we’ve done, to try and minimise the work we have to do, is split the fixture into lots where no teams play more than once. So expect ‘weeks’ that last from Tuesday to Friday for a while, as well as plenty with fewer than five games.

In the last proper weekend of games for a while, we ended up continuing at our 2/5 right record. Our bits took a hit though, primarily due to the last two games.

[Comparative predictions incoming]

W-League Predictions – Week 8, 2018-19

A high scoring weekend (18 goals were scored in three games) ended up with us getting two out of three right, with a draw the exception. It wasn’t enough to rescue our Bits though, with a score still languishing around in the negatives.

The first two games of the round have teams that are heavily tipped to win, the last two are less clear.

A-League Predictions – Week 8, 2018-19

Here at The Flag we got three tips right, with our prediction of Central Coast (unsurprisingly) going against us. That also took off a full 1.19 bits, slightly overbalancing the rest of our predictions.

Looking at how our predictions compare to the ladder, we’ve found that we’ve got some pretty awkward results coming out; likely dependent on the fact that most of our data’s still from 2017-18. This explains our favouritism of Newcastle over the undefeated Perth side, amongst other results.

How’s the symmetry at the end there? (Apparently Sydney are the away side, so we apologise for that error.)

That also goes some way to explaining why our predictions are sometimes weird compared to the other two we’re looking at.

W-League Predictions – Week 7, 2018-19

We only got one of the games right in the last week – the last one, Sydney FC’s thrashing of Brisbane. On top of that, the two draws at the start wrought havoc on our Bits score – since we’re never going to tip them, and wrong tips impact us much more than right ones, we’ve gone down to -1.06.

Just the three games for this weekend. Sydney FC favourites for the first one, then Newcastle and Brisbane have roughly the same chances as each other in their respective games.

A-League Predictions – Week 7, 2018-19

We got off to a roaring start, correctly tipping the first three games of the round and pushing above the random chance mark for the first time! They also helped our Bits rocket up to -0.54, our best since after Week 1.

Unfortunately, we didn’t get the last two games right, so we’re stuck at 36.67%. Also unfortunately for our competition, the three we got correct were the ones that GRAFT and FiveThirtyEight agreed with us on. Those two correctly tipped Melbourne City in the last game, meaning that they were both able to increase their lead on us.

This round includes our most lop-sided tip yet, with Wellington having less than a one-in-ten chance to beat Sydney FC. Most of the other games have a lean towards the home side.

Yes, we know it says ‘Week 6’. We apologise.

This round is full of almost unanimous tipping, except for our bizarre insistence that Central Coast are a good side.