How Elo Ratings Work · Elo Ratings Spreadsheet · Win Chances Spreadsheet · WBBL|04 Elo Ratings
Complete Elo rating history + MBBL|08 starts
The dominance the Perth Scorchers have held over the MBBL is amazing in its scope. For the last four years, they’ve had an uninterrupted run as the #1 MBBL team; they’ve never missed a finals series; and five of the six highest year-end ratings are Scorchers sides.
Unsurprisingly, they have a heavy lead at the top of the ratings, even with the regression to the mean that comes with every season ending. But beyond Perth, and defending champions Adelaide, the rest of the competition is pretty close to each other.
| ELO RATINGS | |
| Perth Scorchers | 1559 |
| Adelaide Strikers | 1535 |
| Melbourne Renegades | 1500 |
| Sydney Sixers | 1492 |
| Hobart Hurricanes | 1485 |
| Brisbane Heat | 1483 |
| Sydney Thunder | 1478 |
| Melbourne Stars | 1468 |
The projected wins show this off further, with the difference between second and third further than the difference between third and last. While a full home-and-away season does mean we can have a wider range in our final ladder, it doesn’t mean we can get any fun results from fixturing.
| PROJECTED WINS | |
| Perth Scorchers | 8.34 |
| Adelaide Strikers | 7.80 |
| Melbourne Renegades | 7.00 |
| Sydney Sixers | 6.82 |
| Hobart Hurricanes | 6.66 |
| Brisbane Heat | 6.61 |
| Sydney Thunder | 6.50 |
| Melbourne Stars | 6.27 |
We did see that one of our Twitter comrades, @SgtButane, has had his work build their own BBL simulator. It’s really neat, so we ran it 20 times to average and compare the projected wins. As it turns out, our two systems largely agree on what the good teams are, but theirs outputs more extreme results than ours.
| Team | ADE | BNE | HOB | MELR | MELS | PTH | SYDS | SYDT |
| The Flag | 7.80 | 6.61 | 6.66 | 7.00 | 6.27 | 8.34 | 6.82 | 6.50 |
| Stats Insider | 8.40 | 8.00 | 5.95 | 7.35 | 7.15 | 6.90 | 6.85 | 5.40 |
| Difference | -0.60 | -1.39 | 0.71 | -0.35 | -0.88 | 1.44 | -0.03 | 1.10 |
Head to head probabilities
The big lead Perth have is to clear to see, as the win chances are much darker (lower) against them than against other sides.
The infamous win-curve GIF
Two other fun tables that we still haven’t come up with titles for but still wanted to share
| Proj Wins | 100% Seas | 0% Seas | Win Seas | Lose Seas | |
| Adelaide | 7.80 | 3,748 to 1 | 94,173 to 1 | 56.78% | 24.06% |
| Brisbane | 6.61 | 38,644 to 1 | 8,070 to 1 | 31.63% | 47.79% |
| Hobart | 6.66 | 35,098 to 1 | 8,811 to 1 | 32.52% | 46.80% |
| Renegades | 7.00 | 17,334 to 1 | 17,324 to 1 | 39.51% | 39.45% |
| Stars | 6.27 | 80,814 to 1 | 4,248 to 1 | 25.30% | 55.23% |
| Perth | 8.34 | 1,439 to 1 | 329,546 to 1 | 68.04% | 15.80% |
| Sixers | 6.82 | 25,154 to 1 | 12,038 to 1 | 35.73% | 43.34% |
| Thunder | 6.50 | 49,255 to 1 | 6,495 to 1 | 29.44% | 50.27% |
| Team | Highest Rating | Date | Lowest Rating | Date |
| Adelaide | 1556 | January 18, 2016 | 1460 | January 22, 2014 |
| Brisbane | 1525 | December 22, 2013 | 1433 | December 29, 2015 |
| Hobart | 1538 | January 1, 2012 | 1451 | December 30, 2017 |
| Renegades | 1537 | January 9, 2013 | 1464 | January 16, 2017 |
| Stars | 1578 | January 27, 2014 | 1446 | January 23, 2018 |
| Perth | 1592 | January 25, 2018 | 1490 | December 18, 2011 |
| Sixers | 1556 | January 24, 2015 | 1447 | January 8, 2018 |
| Thunder | 1520 | December 23, 2011 | 1389 | January 11, 2014 |
The Flag 
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