Iceland, Panama, and Performances at First World Cups

Iceland have become, in recent times, the talk of the soccer world. They came within a playoff of qualifying for the 2014 World Cup, sensationally knocked out England at Euro 2016, and now, after beating Kosovo 2-0, have qualified for their first World Cup.

It’s a great achievement for the country. They fell apart during the global financial crisis, with debts eight times larger than the national GDP and widespread political protest. They have a population of 332,529 – smaller than Canberra, Christchurch, or Cardiff. It’s a thousand times smaller than the United States, who failed to qualify.

The Icelandic team, in their very nice blue kit, celebrate beating Kosovo to qualify for the World Cup. Photo by Haraldur Gudjonsson for AFP, from the FIFA website.

There’s no denying that it’s a great success for Iceland. Also in the news is Panama, who were the lucky beneficiaries of the US failure. Román Torres’ late goal against Costa Rica gave them a 2-1 victory and third spot in CONCACAF¹, thus getting them to their first World Cup as well.

This is the first time since 2006 that multiple teams have made their first World Cup. That 2006 tournament also holds the record for the most new teams, with Angola, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago and Ukraine all making their first tournament.

Proportionally, though, the record goes to the 1974 tournament,² where one quarter of the sixteen teams were new. Australia, East Germany, Haiti, and Zaire all qualified for the first time, and were promptly humilated, with the Australians, Haitians, and Zairites finishing 14th, 15th, and 16th respectively. None of them made it back for thirty years.

The fact that they didn’t do well suggests that we shouldn’t expect miracles from Strákarnir okkar³ and Los Canaleros.⁴ Indeed, a full half of teams were in the bottom quarter of sides at their first World Cup. Nineteen teams finished in the bottom three (more than finished in the top half), and six countries (South Korea, El Salvador, Zaire/DR Congo, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, and Greece) finished last.

Team performance at first World Cup

Top 10%	1	2%
Top 25%	4	8%
Top 50%	14	29%
Bottom 25%	25	51%
Bottom 10%	15	31%
Last	6	12%

On the other hand, fourteen teams have made the top half of sides. Ghana and Slovakia made the round of 16 at their first tournament. Senegal and Ukraine made the quarter finals in 2002 and 2006 respectively. But the best debut performance is Croatia.

The Vatreni (Blazers) beat Jamaica and Japan in the group stage to finish second in Group H, before beating Romania and Germany to meet with France in the semi-final. They lost, but beat the Netherlands in the third-place match as a consolation.

It’ll be pretty tough for either of our teams to do that. But soccer’s a funny game.

List of first World Cups

Country	Year	Teams	Rank	Rank %5
Croatia	1998	32	3	91%
Portugal	1966	16	3	81%
Senegal	2002	32	7	78%
Ukraine	2006	32	8	75%
Wales	1958	16	6	63%
East Germany	1974	16	6	63%
Denmark	1986	24	9	63%
Nigeria	1994	24	9	63%
Ghana	2006	32	13	59%
Russia (as Soviet Union)	1958	16	7	56%
Northern Ireland	1958	16	8	50%
North Korea	1966	16	8	50%
Saudi Arabia	1994	24	12	50%
Slovakia	2010	32	16	50%
Algeria	1982	24	13	46%
Costa Rica	1990	24	13	46%
Turkey	1954	16	9	44%
Tunisia	1978	16	9	44%
Ivory Coast	2006	32	19	41%
England	1950	13	8	38%
Bosnia and Herzergovina	2014	32	20	38%
Jamaica	1998	32	22	31%
Cameroon	1982	24	17	29%
Angola	2006	32	23	28%
Israel	1970	16	12	25%
Honduras	1982	24	18	25%
South Africa	1998	32	24	25%
Ecuador	2002	32	24	25%
Trinidad and Tobago	2006	32	27	16%
Colombia	1962	16	14	13%
Morocco	1970	16	14	13%
Australia	1974	16	14	13%
Iran	1978	16	14	13%
Kuwait	1982	24	21	13%
Scotland	1954	16	15	6%
Bulgaria	1962	16	15	6%
Haiti	1974	16	15	6%
Slovenia	2002	32	30	6%
Togo	2006	32	30	6%
New Zealand	1982	24	23	4%
Iraq	1986	24	23	4%
Japan	1998	32	31	3%
China PR	2002	32	31	3%
South Korea	1954	16	16	0%
El Salvador	1970	16	16	0%
DR Congo (as Zaire)	1974	16	16	0%
Canada	1986	24	24	0%
United Arab Emirates	1990	24	24	0%
Greece	1994	24	24	0%

EDIT: I released, after I posted this, that I had to include this lovely cartoon from Scandinavia and the World, a webcomic by the Danish artist Humon:

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¹Torres also scored the winning penalty for Seattle in the last Major League Soccer season, so he’s having a good year.
²Throughout the article, I’m excluding the World Cups held before the Second World War.
³‘Our boys’ in Icelandic.
⁴‘The Canal Men’ in Spanish.
⁵This is basically the percentage of teams they were better than at the World Cup. It’s not entirely perfect (if a team won, it wouldn’t be at 100%), but it works fairly well.