Originally published on Statscrunch on June 20, 2016, with all statistics accurate to then.
The UEFA European Championships are in full swing at the moment, and there has been all sort of statistical analysis on about it. Mine are rather simplistic by comparison, but should go some way to determining the best goalkeeper at Euro 2016. Using readily available data, I’ve gone some way to calculating it.
There have been 26 goalkeepers used at Euro 2016 so far, with all teams except Poland and Wales using just one. To rank all of these, we are using two simple statistics: goals conceded and shots on target against.
The most goals any goalkeeper has conceded is four, which, at the time of writing, has been done by five players. The least is zero, which has been done by another six.
Shots on target against may at first seem like it is an indictment on the defenders, but it will come in handy. Only one goalkeeper has had none of these (Poland’s Wojciech Szczęsny), while Ukraine’s Andrey Pyatov and Romania’s Ciprian Tătărușanu have sixteen of these.
Our first ratings system involves calculating what percentage of shots on target have led to goals for the opposition. If there are shots on target, they can lead to two main options: either a save by the goalkeeper or a goal. A good goalkeeper should minimise the number of goals conceded.
Using the statistics from the EPL Live app, I summed the statistics for each option, and then calculated the percentage for each goalkeeper like such: (goals conceded)÷1(shots on target against). This was then converted to an out of ten rating. And the best goalkeeper, with a perfect 10 rating, was:
A five way tie.
Robert Almer, David de Gea, Gianluigi Buffon, Łukasz Fabiański, and Manuel Neuer have all not conceded a goal. Almer has faced the most shots on target, though, with seven, and so he wins the nod for this goalkeeper rating system.
The next ratings system is the number of saves a goalkeeper makes. If there is a team with a leaky defence, their goalkeeper could be the only one stopping them from losing every game 4-0.
This relies on a simpler equation: (shots on target against)-(goals conceded)2. To convert this into an out of ten rating, you divide that figure by twelve (the highest value), before multiplying it by ten again. The winner of this, with a perfect ten rating, is:
A tie.
Pyatov and Tătărușanu both have twelve saves throughout the tournament. However, both have let in four goals, meaning this may not be the most accurate system.
And finally, we average out the two systems, to find our best goalkeeper. This one doesn’t have a tie, it has a definitive winner. That is…
Hannes Halldórsson.
The Icelandic goalkeeper has a rating of 8.46, ranked eighth, in the first system, and 9.17, ranked third, in the second. These combine for a rating of 8.81, which is enough to go over Pyatov and Tătărușanu, who tie for second.
Surprisingly low is the French captain, Hugo Lloris, with a combined rating of 2.92 (ranked 24th). However, he has one save for the entire competition, despite having played three matches. This is probably because France’s defence is just that good that he doesn’t have to do much.
Here’s the overall ratings:
and here is the spreadsheet itself: Best Goalkeeper at Euro 2016
There will be a sequel post at the end of the tournament, remember to remind me. In the meantime, enjoy the analysis!
1Today I learned that the division sign is called an obelus. Did you know that? Well, now you do.
2Yes, yes, I know this isn’t perfect. It’s good enough for these purposes, though.
The Flag 