Two games into the season, and although it’s early days, we’ve got a few things to look at. Melbourne City and Sydney FC sit with two wins, Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar sit with two losses, Newcastle’s scoring a lot and Central Coast is conceding a lot.
The upcoming round has a few highlights – Victory will attempt to break their season duck against Adelaide United, and the two Sydney teams will playoff in a much-anticipated derby. And I’ve also realised that I could giving you all a lot more information about how the FADR ratings are progressing, so that’s also going to be in the posts.
This Week’s Predictions
Me and FADR both got two last week, taking my total to 3/10 and hers1 to 4/10. This means she’s doing slightly better than random chance. Early days yet though.
We disagree on both of the Saturday games, so I could remain one behind, fall to three behind, or get a lead.
And as a bonus prediction, the FFA Cup semi-final is on Tuesday, with Western Sydney and Adelaide competing for the chance to play Sydney in the final. I’m tipping Western Sydney to win 2:1, FADR has the same (but in extra time).
The Current Ratings
Perth Glory lead by a short distance over the Sky Blues, before a gap to the rest of the competition. At the other end of the league, Adelaide languish with a rating of just 0.70.
Attack Ratings
- Perth Glory, 1.29
- Sydney FC, 1.25
- Melbourne City, 1.12
- Melbourne Victory, 1.12
- Wellington Phoenix, 1.05
- Brisbane Roar, 0.97
- Central Coast Mariners, 0.85
- Western Sydney Wanderers, 0.82
- Newcastle Jets, 0.79
- Adelaide United, 0.70
The two goals Sydney conceded on the weekend took their defensive rating down a long way to 3.89. (Minor note, they’re still nearly 2.5 clear of the next team.)
Defense Ratings
- Sydney FC, 3.89
- Melbourne Victory, 1.42
- Western Sydney Wanderers, 1.25
- Adelaide United, 0.97
- Brisbane Roar, 0.97
- Melbourne City, 0.91
- Wellington Phoenix, 0.90
- Perth Glory, 0.77
- Newcastle Jets, 0.77
- Central Coast Mariners, 0.74
The Season Ahead
A warning ahead: take this with a grain of salt. It’s clearly unreasonable to suggest that Sydney FC won’t concede a goal for the rest of the season. Yet that’s what their absurd rating suggests.
In fact, it’s the biggest problem with these ratings, I’ve got no way to adjust for absurd scenarios. But with that in mind, this is what the predictions have the end ladder on:
- Sydney FC, 81 pts, +53
- Melbourne Victory, 63 pts, +16
- Melbourne City, 44 pts, +4
- Perth Glory, 38 pts, -1
- Wellington Phoenix, 37 pts, 0
- West Sydney, 36 pts, 0
- Brisbane Roar, 35 pts, -4
- Adelaide United, 13 pts, -18
- Newcastle Jets, 8 pts, -20
- Central Coast Mariners, 6 pts, -30
It’ll look less weird the later into the season we go.
1Hey, if I’m going to give algorithms genders, I may as well mix it up a little.
The Flag 